The week ahead – It is not yet party time

16th February 2018

A court has jailed a Boko Haram militant involved in the 2014 kidnapping of the Chibok girls. Haruna Yahaya, 35, is the first member of the group to be sentenced for playing a part in the mass abduction. The former trader, who confessed to his role in taking the 276 schoolgirls, argued he was made to act under duress. But judges sitting at a court in Kanji, who are hearing the cases of more than 1,000 suspected Boko Haram militants, dismissed his excuse. Justice Ministry Spokesman, Salihu Isah, told AFP that Yahaya was given a 15-year jail sentence. Yahaya, who came from Potiskum in Yobe, was captured by a vigilante group called the Civilian JTF in 2015, – a year after the girls were snatched from Government Girls Secondary School in Borno. Of the 276 girls taken in April 2014, 112 are still in captivity.

A group of Senators from the ruling All Progressives Congress have rejected the Senate adoption of the conference committee report on amendment to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Act. The senators said they were opposed to the amendment to section 25 of the Act which rearranged the order of the 2019 elections. The House of Representatives was the first to amend the Electoral Act to change the order of the 2019 general elections putting the election of federal lawmakers first, before that of the state lawmakers and state governors, with the last being the presidential election. The Senators, 10 in number, left the chambers to address the press while plenary was still on. The 10 Senators are Abdullahi Adamu (Nasarawa-APC), Ovie Omo-Agege (Delta-APC), Binta Garba (Adamawa-APC), Ali Wakili (Bauchi-APC), Kurfi Umaru (Katsina-APC), and Andrew Uchendu (Rivers-APC). Others are: Abdullahi Danbaba (Sokoto-APC), Yahaya Abdullahi (Kebbi-APC), Abu Ibrahim (Katsina-APC), and Benjamin Uwajumogu (Imo-APC). They described the amendment and process of passage as ‘illegal’, vowing that it would not stand.

The Federal Government will reintroduce excise duty on some goods manufactured in the country, and excisable imported goods in line with the directive of the ECOWAS Council of Ministers. The Cable reports that, a letter from Finance Minister, Kemi Adeosun to President Muhammadu Buhari said, spaghetti and noodles would be exempted from the changes. Adeosun said noodles and spaghetti were exempted on the fact that “they currently constitute significant staple and accessible foods, which are easily affordable by all the economic class of the Nigerian society”. The Minister had suggested that all excisable products removed from the excise list in 2009 be returned. The excise duty is five percent.

Annual inflation in Nigeria slowed for the twelfth month in a row in January, to 15.13 percent, compared to 15.37 percent in December, the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. A separate food price index showed inflation at 18.92 percent in January, compared to 19.42 percent in December. “The rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of imported food in general as well as bread and cereals, milk, cheese, meat, potatoes and other tubers,” the NBS said in a report. Yemi Kale, head of the NBS, last month said he expected the rate of inflation to fall faster this year compared to 2017, but activities leading up to presidential elections next year could stoke prices.


  • Yahaya’s conviction is a very welcome development. Just this Monday, twenty people were found guilty of crimes associated with Boko Haram, while two were discharged for lack of evidence in what is the country’s biggest legal investigation of the militant Islamist insurgency. In October 2017, the Ministry of Justice said 45 suspects suspected of Boko Haram links had been convicted and jailed. A further 468 suspects were discharged, and 28 suspects were remanded for trial in Abuja or Minna. This is progress. Another form of progress, albeit one that bears close observation, is the release of thirteen hostages on Saturday, after authorities negotiated with the Islamist militants. Three of the hostages were lecturers from the University of Maiduguri who were abducted while on an oil exploration trip in Magumeri, Borno in July 2017. The other 10, were women police officers kidnapped in a raid on a convoy the previous month. Their release is very welcome. It also reduces pressure on the FG who have been criticised for apparently abandoning other hostages due to the lack of public pressure on them in comparison to that of the Chibok girls.
  • The leader of the dissenting group, Abdullahi Adamu (Nasarawa-APC), questioned the conduct of the Senate President, Bukola Saraki (Kwara-APC), in the passage process. Ovie Omo-Agege (Delta-APC) alleged that the House of Representatives did not form a quorum when the issue was considered. Ali Wakili (Bauchi-APC), said four elections in one month will be too staggering and portend ill for the economy, politics, and security. Their reasons bear looking at. The proposed election timetable by the House of Representatives has been widely seen as a way to not tie their electoral fortunes tightly to President Buhari. This show of dissent by the 10 Senators not only shows their allegiance to the President, but also strengthens opposition to the changed timetable by challenging its legality. It will be an event to be watched closely and all legal challenges will have to be concluded in time for parties to hold election primaries.
  • In our 2018 outlook, we said that the Federal Government would look for more ways to shore up revenues. In spite of the Finance Minister’s claims that over ₦400 billion was released for capital expenditure, CBN records show a much smaller amount, about ₦90 billion, indicative of less actual revenue available to the government to execute its projects. As the year progresses, we expect to see more attempts to raise revenue of this nature, and it is the organised private sector that is easiest to tax, hence the government will continue to target them, rather than the harder work of taxing the more diverse informal sector.
  • We expect the downward trend in inflation to turnaround by March, as the base effect on inflation finally comes to an end. New drivers will turn the inflation up, including the price of petrol which has been unofficially increased during the scarcity, as well as the Easter festivities which will lead into full blown campaign season.