#NigeriaDecides2019 postponement – GDP foregone

Estimating the impact of today’s election postponement on GDP is quite subjective. Some of the clear effects include:

• Disruption of business activities
• Disruption of social activities
• Increased wage cost
• Inconvenience to daily life
• Reduced consumer spending

Another consequence is that, many firms shutdown early on the Friday preceding election day, while educational institutions took early mid-term/ semester breaks.

SBM Intel estimates Nigeria’s GDP at $420 billion as at the end of 2018 and we have estimated the foregone GDP for the various economic sectors (contribution to GDP in line with National Bureau of Statistics data).

With this in mind, Nigeria lot 0.531% of GDP, or $2.2302 billion today. The final cost, is the reputational damage, which cannot be measured in dollar terms.

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