Africa Watch – Sudan at a crossroads

A three-week blockade of Sudan’s main port by tribal protesters is causing shortages of wheat and fuel oil for power generation, endangering the country’s already faulty electricity supply, a cabinet minister said on Saturday. Tensions between Sudan’s military and civilian leaders have been running high in recent weeks, and some civilian figures have accused the military of playing a role in the Beja tribe’s blockade of Port Sudan, surrounding roads and fuel pipelines.

Military leaders have denied any involvement, and Beja leaders say they are protesting to draw attention to economic and political issues affecting the eastern tribe. In the capital, Khartoum, queues for bread have reappeared in recent days and there have been shortages of imported flour. Minister of Cabinet Affairs Khalid Omer Yousif said in a statement the government would redistribute wheat stocks located in the country’s Northern State to bolster supplies elsewhere. Diesel supplies have also been affected by the blockade but petrol supplies remain stable, the statement added.

On Friday, the United States, Britain and Norway backed Sudan’s civilian-led transitional government in urging political talks to resolve the protests.

In recent weeks, Sudan has been hit by a cascade of political and economic instability that has threatened its fragile joint military-democratic transition government instituted after the deposition of former president Omar al-Bashir. Since a transition plan was put in place, the country has wiggled its way through an internal crisis, a failed coup and a troubled economy in the wake of a global pandemic.

The failed coup attempt in September undoubtedly inflamed friction between the military and the politicians, as former military allies and loyalists of Omar al-Bashir were accused of being its perpetrators. With protracted protests, the impact on the economy has become severe with food prices skyrocketing and electricity becoming ever so elusive. The ongoing blockade, now well into its third week, is putting the country’s threadbare economy in jeopardy – an economy still recovering from the impact of the pandemic-induced crunch.

The annual bill on subsidies on such things as fuel and wheat is an estimated $4 billion annually or around 12 percent of GDP. According to the European Council on Foreign Relation, this is equivalent to Khartoum’s entire budget deficit. In July, Sudan succeeded in securing debt relief from the Paris Club to the tune of $14 billion, a major win at a time the Sudanese are mired in a range of economic pressures. Now, the transition government faces even more pressure as former rebels split with their one-time civilian allies and are calling for a new government.

Two important take-home lessons are apparent in this case: First, African leaders can learn from Khartoum’s approach to the blockade by respecting the rights of citizens to protest. Secondly, the Sudanese government ought to be proactive in meeting the demands of its citizens before this degenerates into a severe economic crisis likely to incentivise another coup attempt, which could inadvertently destroy any progress, however tenuous, made toward democracy in the country.