The SBM election series: Nigeria goes to vote
24th February 2023
Since 2022, SBM Intelligence has carried out an election series focused on the presidential elections and down-ballot positions. As Nigerians prepare to go to vote tomorrow and in two weeks, the focus has been on the presidential election. This is not far-fetched, as it is the land’s highest office. For the first time in Nigeria’s political history, there is a viable third party option – Peter Obi’s Labour Party, and his presence has set the stage for the election to be the most competitive yet. However, we believe that whosoever gets into the federal and state legislative houses and governor’s offices matters greatly, as they can impact the lives of Nigerians faster than whoever becomes President. We have provided analysis on the major stakeholders in the election, the umpire – INEC, and how the current state of the country’s security architecture could impact the elections. We have also analysed some key state and legislative races.
Worthy of honourable mention is that the election series has assessed the chances of the major presidential candidates, Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar, and Peter Obi, at the polls and also predicted that Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) could serve as a political wild card to any of the major contenders. We also interrogated the concept of political endorsements in the Nigerian context and discovered that the power of endorsements relies mainly on the endorser’s influence and following.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has been at the centre of the election series and was even featured consecutively in the election security briefs, which were first released on 16th January 2023, as there have been concerns that the Commission may not be ready to conduct elections, beginning tomorrow. There is a tendency for the elections to be postponed, considering the high level of attacks on the Commission’s facilities. Despite the attacks, more than 90% of registered voters have collected their Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs), highlighting our survey which predicted that turnout would rise significantly. But, we think that the persistent insecurity in the country will profoundly impact the credibility of the polls.
The passage of the Electoral Act 2022 is also expected to be a game-changer for Nigerian elections. However, that is not likely to happen, considering the BVAS challenge in the off-cycle gubernatorial elections in Ekiti and Osun in 2022. Nevertheless, INEC still gets to call the shots, as the law did its best to address all the issues that have prevented the conduct of credible elections in the past. The matter of trust in the electoral body is also essential. In a recent study, only 60% of voters told us that they trust INEC “to conduct credible elections in 2023.”
The election series has also shone a spotlight on the political climate of some states. Lagos is the ultimate prize in Nigeria’s politics, as it is the most populated and economically buoyant state. Also, the state’s House of Assembly’s failure to check the Executive’s actions has been discussed (especially in light of the EndSARS protest in 2020). Lagosians now have an opportunity to change the narrative on 11 March 2023. We interrogated the impact of the Nigerian Army’s involvement in policing duties in Lagos, which led to the arrest of 116 thugs in the Oshodi area of the city, and how this could impact the ambition of the APC candidate. It is also important to point out that military intervention in the state has set a bad precedent for the future. Ogun State was not left out, as it has failed to fulfil its potential and take full advantage of its proximity to Lagos. Whoever wins the forthcoming election will take on the burden of changing the narrative. Although the incumbent is expected to win, the rise in voter registration could spring a surprise. We also talked about Seyi Makinde’s chances at retaining his governorship in Oyo.
Moving from the South-West to the South-East, the gubernatorial race in Enugu was analysed, as this year could be different for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which has maintained a stronghold in the state’s politics since 1999, as the party has failed to develop the state. The murder of a Labour Party candidate this week casts a shadow over things. In Abia State, we provided insight into what could play out at the governorship election after the passing away of Professor Uchena Ikonne, the PDP’s governorship candidate. The sad death of Professor Ikonne has provided a silver lining for the opposition in the state, as there is a high level of dissatisfaction with the performance of the outgoing governor, Okezie Ikpeazu.
In the North-Central region, we made a case for the reclamation of the country’s food basket. The governorship candidates in Benue State must prioritise the security of the state and the utilisation of the numerous natural resources to provide economic prosperity for the people. We also did a deep-dive into the local politics in Plateau State and talked about the dynamics of that state.
Over to Taraba State, in the North-East region, it remains to be seen whether the PDP will maintain its reign as the party has never lost a gubernatorial election in the state since 1999. In neighbouring Adamawa, a woman on the ballot is an oddity in Nigerian politics, and asides from the analysis concerning how Atiku Abubakar’s presence on the ballot would affect the elections there, we also did two spotlights on historically disenfranchised groups in Nigerian politics: women and Persons With Disabilities.
A key highlight of our election series has been the discourse of salient issues that have affected the Nigerian state, including increased women’s participation in governance, which has dramatically been canvassed for. But, this hinges deeply on the composition of the National Assembly as they have the power to make laws and policies that will promote women’s political participation. Voters have named security (30.9%), the economy (22.5%), corruption (11%) and the petrol subsidy (8.2%) as the most pressing issues they expect the next government to tackle first. Furthermore, there are concerns about the legitimacy of the exercise itself. Almost 70% of voters want to see stricter laws governing the use of funds for political campaigns. That state of affairs falls squarely within the legislature’s prerogative.
However, under the Buhari administration, the National Assembly has done very little regarding checks and balances but has swiftly taken action on matters that affect their interests. The Nigerian Senate is also notoriously known for patronising the excesses of the Executive. We have elucidated the importance of Local Government autonomy in Nigeria. These issues require Nigerians to consider who they vote for in the various legislative houses. In conclusion, Nigerians should set legislative agendas for them and be ready to reward and punish them accordingly.