Africa Watch – Between East and West

Russia’s deputy foreign minister said that the United States is “exerting unprecedented pressure” on African countries, including attempting to disrupt a planned Russia-Africa summit. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, quoted by the state TASS agency, reiterated Moscow’s accusations of the “collective West” staging a campaign to isolate Moscow. “The United States and its allies are conducting an unprecedented campaign for Russia’s political and economic isolation, including the disruption of the Russian-Africa second summit in St. Petersburg,” Bogdanov told TASS.

Following its relative lack of success in isolating Russia, the United States doctrine of strategic competition with its rivals in Eurasia is playing out in ways that sit well within the tenets of its maximum pressure push. This relatively recent pivot represents a departure from the strategic patience approach adopted with North Korea’s nuclear programme.

In late February, the US House of Representatives tabled a draft resolution, which had South Africa’s foreign policy and relations with the US on the slate for an extensive review. The resolution, HR14, proposed that the Joe Biden administration formally oppose naval exercises between South Africa, Russia and China; the most recent — Mosi II — was held off South Africa’s Indian Ocean coast over two weeks this February. The resolution also requires Mr Biden to review US-South Africa bilateral relations comprehensively.

Washington has been concerned about Pretoria’s direction for a while. When South Africa opted to join the Brazil, Russia, India and China or BRICS economic grouping, the move was met with a shrug from the White House. However, in recent years, growing strategic competition between the East and West has increased the imperative for allies operating in ever-enclosed ecosystems. This has put South Africa, which is nominally pragmatic and ideologically neutral but effectively East-leaning, in a tight position.

The aforementioned naval exercise symbolises Pretoria’s proclivities. Historically, close relations between United Russia (standing as inheritor of the traditions of the Soviet Communist Party), the Chinese Communist Party and the African National Congress and South Africa’s muted stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which basically comprised of a lethargic call for peace.

Concerning other African countries, Antony Blinken has resorted to shuttle diplomacy across key capitals, promising aid, support on shared initiatives and security cooperations to compel alignment with American interests. Moscow and Beijing have responded with whistle-stop tours of their own. Other Western powers haven’t been left out. Paris and Berlin, and to a lesser extent, Rome and Madrid, have touched base on the continent, albeit with a more narrow focus on energy and migration concerns.

However, this doctrine of maximum pressure on paper will only drive African countries to assert their sovereignty. For example, many African heads of state will attend March’s Russia-Africa Summit. Furthermore, some African capitals may be past the point of no return from a Western perspective; Bamako, Bangui and Ouagadougou being the first movers. Beyond that, going above paper symbolism will depend on how much residual clout the US possesses on the continent. If the fallout from potential American sanctions is perceived as being mitigated by Chinese political and economic power, expect some bold moves by a few countries. Put another way, Washington can only push so hard or risk tipping more than a few African actors in the other column.