The week ahead – An unsightly spectacle

Armed men killed one worshipper and abducted three persons during an attack on the Christian Pentecostal Church in Logo Local Government Area of Benue State. The following day, suspected Boko Haram terrorists attacked Dabna community in Adamawa State. Also, at least 10 persons were murdered in neighbouring Taraba by suspected herdsmen. On 4 April, gunmen in Kaduna kidnapped eight secondary school students and others in Kachia Local Government Area. At the end of that week, a violent clash between Hausa and Fulani residents in the Gwadabawa local government area of Sokoto resulted in undisclosed casualties.

Nigeria’s security problems never really went away. The posturing by the security agencies in the run-up to the elections through the positioning of large armoury and heavy troop movement was symbolic: it was meant to conceal the cracks in line with the elite consensus that the show must go on on matters regarding power transfer. Those troop movements and heavy securitisation of the country were not meant to tackle insecurity. Furthermore, the reversal of the cashless policy that created a supply situation that made kidnapping for ransom somewhat untenable means an added constraint has been taken off the table. What has happened between the elections and now shows, very importantly, the government’s lethargy in dealing with the problem. In Benue and Kaduna, militant Fulani herders’ attacks have increased since at least the tail end of last year. No fewer than 672 people were killed in 85 attacks by the militants in 2022 alone. Many of the attacks took place in Benue and Kaduna. Terrorism is as much a problem in the North West and North Central as much as it is a problem in the North East, where although the Boko Haram threat has been reduced to rag-tag banditry as a survival mechanism in areas outside of Borno’s North, it’s deadliest splinter faction, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), still portends a great danger for Adamawa and Taraba—where it launched several successful attacks in 2022—residents. In a depressing turn of events, the government’s failure to tackle the security crises is leading to more inter-ethnic clashes. In 2022, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) aired a documentary that showed that the fault lines between the Fulani and the Hausa in the North West are stark, which did just enough to expose the civil war between the two groups that has been going on for years, driven by the problem of banditry and petty cattle rustling. On this basis, perception is reality: the mere perception of government ineptitude when the Fulani are the aggressors has simply put a target on the average, innocent Fulani, and this situation is no less helped by the country’s perennial struggle with keeping up with a steady flow of small arms and light weapons which various government initiatives such as the setting up of the National Centre for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons, for instance, has failed to solve. Regarding solutions, it is somewhat odd that these attacks have not stirred a fevered discussion about state policing and how these institutions could be engineered to combat these threats effectively. Nigeria has a 370,000-strong police force to shepherd its 36 states as well as the national capital, and while this means we should have an average of 10,000 policemen per state, which is too little, it is not obtainable in practice because the economically vibrant states have a higher policeman-to-citizen ratio. It is unclear how inclined the APC president-elect is to support the establishment of sub-national police departments, but the states should force the issue and make state policing a priority for the coming administration.

Unilever Nigeria says it will stop producing the well-loved Omo, Sunlight and Lux home care brands as it struggles to sustain its in-country operations. The company is “exiting the home care and skin cleansing categories to concentrate on higher growth opportunities,” according to a company statement. “The exit of these two categories over 2023 will boost the vision to make Unilever Nigeria great, building on the impressive progress made in other key aspects of the business, and is envisaged to result in the overall improvement in profitability, growth and a more sustainable business,” it added.

This development amplifies the argument that Nigerian households are experiencing a cost of living crisis. A rise in inflation amid a challenging economic climate has left household incomes creaking under the weight of propping consumption. Many Nigerians will receive this news with nostalgia because, for decades, Omo and Lux were household staples across the country. However, with the advent of fierce competition from new brands, these products are used less often in households and are no longer commonly found in the neighbourhood kiosks. Marketing experts will point out that products are subject to life cycles and processes which take them through four stages: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. A 2022 BusinessDay survey that covered Unilever and seven other top Nigerian consumer goods manufacturers found out that their cost of sales had risen from ₦851 million to ₦1.10 billion over nine months. And this 29% rise happened in a year when Nigeria’s inflation rate also climbed for 10 consecutive months, aided by a lingering fuel scarcity that made production costs higher at a time when the purchasing power of Nigerians has never been lower on average. 70 million Nigerians survive on ₦380 ($0.51) each day. The naira has depreciated by 60% over the last six years. This mixture of inflation, high production costs, and poverty forces people to prioritise spending on food items, and the low disposable income makes it much harder for non-food brands as people go for cheaper brands and lower quantities, which squeezes out the brands that haven’t firmly placed themselves in people’s hearts despite their unaffordability. A collapse in Nigeria’s purchasing power and an exodus of the middle class that can afford these products has severely shrunk the market. As we have seen in exits from more upscale store chains such as Shoprite, more and more middle-class target products will continue to exit the Nigerian market, except urgent steps are taken to arrest these trends. As long as they hold, the Nigerian market will shrink and choke out the brands that don’t get enough patronage. More announcements like these over the next 18 months are likely; and sadly, some beloved brands will be caught up in the maelstrom.

The United States intelligence community monitored Nigeria’s just-concluded national elections and tracked top-level talks within the Department of State Services (DSS), according to leaked files seen by HumAngle. The briefing slides were part of the highly classified documents circulated online recently that revealed information about the US spying on allies and adversaries. Though Washington has not confirmed the authenticity of the documents, it said it was “actively reviewing” the issue. One of the top-secret briefs obtained revealed that the Nigerian security services were aware of the malfunction of some of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) prior to the elections.

A major reason why the intelligence leak has not garnered the furore that the Snowden saga generated when it was revealed that the Obama administration actively spied on foes and allies alike, including then German Chancellor Angela Merkel, is that in the present circumstances, the leaks have a more delicate imperative: the success of Ukraine in light of Western military support in its war with Russia. The focus has been on Ukraine’s plans for a spring offensive against Russian positions in and around Bakhmut as the war has become a war of attrition. Further, the world seems distracted with even more pressing domestic and geopolitical matters―that often require American help―that American spying is not met with righteous indignation but is seen as a small price for short-term salvation. Nigeria falls within this category. In the lead-up to the 2015 elections, President Goodluck Jonathan famously quipped that “America will know,” when asked about US concerns over the Chibok girls’ abduction, which implied that the global power had maintained active espionage in Nigeria’s domestic affairs for a long time, and previously leaked diplomatic cables corroborate the sentiment. WikiLeaks showed that the United States saw the 2001 Jos riots due to a political fallout between Vice President Atiku Abubakar and President Olusegun Obasanjo in the wake of some northern states adopting the Sharia legal code. The latest cache of classified documents shows that the 2023 elections elicited enough international interest, so much so that a congratulatory message from Joe Biden to Bola Tinubu would be seen as endorsing a flawed vote. The US intelligence community’s espionage activity on the elections did not have to go through such hoops. In 2019, President Muhammadu Buhari signed the Mutual Assistance in Criminal Matters Law, allowing Nigeria to assist foreign governments in surveillance and intercepting suspects’ communications during criminal investigations. While this law, on paper, guarantees official assistance, it also provides fertile ground for abuse by bad actors. It, for example, explains the emerging wiretapping scandal around the Labour Party candidate Peter Obi after a purported recording of a conversation with popular Christian minister David Oyedepo surfaced. In the final analysis, the Nigerian government has not taken digital security seriously, subjecting private and public infrastructure to attacks. The US spy story, among other things, shows that while Nigeria’s intelligence-gathering capability is sufficiently developed to counter domestic threats, it has neglected the development of a robust counterintelligence architecture and is now paying for it embarrassingly. When paired with the American state’s capacity in technology, it is easy to see why it would not be difficult to bug the communication channels in a country that cannot deal with Boko Haram terrorists who use motorcycles. It is one thing to spy on sovereign countries; it is quite another thing to use that material as leverage in demanding that nation-states make significant changes. Saudi Arabia sending assassins to kill dissident voices did not stop Washington from making up with the country after initially taking a confrontational stance that only forced the Saudis deeper into a more committed arrangement with China. Put another way, nothing meaningful will come from this matter. The US already knows what it needs to know about the quality (or lack thereof) of the recent elections in Nigeria, but it is unlikely to do more than offer a cold shoulder to a Bola Tinubu administration. Even that could risk forcing Abuja into the arms of a China that offers more financial support and less judgement on issues related to human rights and elections. Much like intelligence estimates, the geopolitical assessment for Washington is clear.

Ghana’s ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) has settled on 4 November 2023 to hold a presidential primary to choose a flagbearer for the 2024 general elections, according to news site Graphic Online, which cited unnamed sources within the party. Before then, the party will hold a special conference on 26 August if the aspirant pool is large to whittle the number down to a maximum of five. The sources said nominations for the presidential primary would open on 26 May and close on 24 June. For the parliamentary primaries, nominations would open on 20 December 2023 and close on 4 January 2024.

The NPP is preparing for its presidential primary amid growing speculation and competition among its potential candidates. The party, which has been in power since 2017, faces the challenge of finding a successor to President Nana Akufo-Addo, who is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term. The primary will be a critical test of the party’s unity and popularity ahead of the 2024 general elections. The special conference will comprise various party stakeholders, including national and regional executives, MPs, Metropolitan, Municipal and District Chief Executives (MMDCEs), elders, founders, and representatives from special organs and external branches. So far, seven NPP stalwarts have publicly declared their intentions to lead the party in 2024. They are Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen, former Minister of Trade and Industry; Dr Owusu Afriyie Akoto, former Minister of Food and Agriculture; Boakye Agyarko, former Minister of Energy; Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, MP for Assin Central; Kwabena Agyepong, former Presidential Spokesperson and General Secretary; Joe Ghartey, former Attorney-General and Essikado-Ketan’s MP; and Francis Addai-Nimoh, the former Mampong MP. However, many observers believe that Vice-President, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, is also a strong contender for the flagbearership, although he has not officially announced a bid. Some party supporters have been campaigning for him covertly or overtly, citing his economic credentials and his appeal to Northern voters. Bawumia has been President Akufo-Addo’s running mate since 2008 and has played a key role in implementing some of the government’s flagship policies. Most political watchers believe his decision to run could reduce the primaries to a two-horse race between him and Alan Kyeremanten. Both candidates have strong credentials and support bases within the party and the general public, but they have their chinks. Dr Bawumia is widely seen as the heir apparent of President Nana Akufo-Addo and credited with being the mastermind behind the NPP’s digital transformation agenda, which has introduced various innovations such as the Ghana Card, mobile money interoperability, digital property addressing system, and universal QR code. He is also regarded as a competent economist who has managed the country’s macroeconomic stability and growth amid the COVID-19 pandemic. He enjoys popularity among the youth, the Zongo communities, and some sections of the northern regions. Some within the party believe he does not have wide grassroots support and isn’t sufficiently loyal to the NPP’s tradition and ideology. There are also questions about his ability to appeal to the core Ashanti base of the party, which accounts for about 40% of its votes. Moreover, his connection with the current economic turmoil taints his credentials as a good economic steward. Finally, he isn’t seen as muscular enough to go against former President John Dramani Mahama. Mr Kyerematen, on the other hand, is a veteran politician who has previously contested for the NPP’s flagbearership in 2007, 2010, and 2014 and is known for his role in promoting industrialisation, trade, and private sector development in Ghana and Africa. He spearheaded the implementation of the One District One Factory initiative, which aimed to create jobs and boost local production. He also championed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which seeks to create a single market for goods and services across the continent. He has a strong following among the party’s grassroots, especially in the Ashanti region, where he hails from. This is not to say that his leadership bid is without challenges. He is seen by some as a perennial loser who has failed to clinch the party’s nomination despite several attempts. Two national polls conducted by Global Info Analytics in July and October 2022 suggest that Bawumia is the preferred choice by NPP voters, followed closely by Kyeremanten. Whoever wins the NPP primaries will come against the NDC, in which John Dramani Mahama seems to have the upper hand over the other contenders. That is not a scenario the NPP would like; Mr Mahama’s vote share among likely voters in 2024 elections is more than Bawumia and Kyerematen combined. The odds stacked against the ruling party is one that’s largely of its own making.