Africa Watch – Grain diplomacy

Russian President Vladimir Putin on 27 July told African leaders he would give them tens of thousands of tons of grain despite Western sanctions. Putin assured that Russia would step in to replace Ukrainian grain exports to Africa, both commercially and as aid, to support global food security. He pledged to provide Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Central African Republic and Eritrea with 25-50,000 tonnes of free grain each in the next three to four months. Putin also noted that despite international sanctions and COVID-19 fallout, trade turnover between Russia and African countries had risen by almost 35 percent in H1 2023.

Mr Putin’s announcement of the countries to receive the grain might not be unconnected to pettiness—one done as a response to South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa’s insistence that the best path for Africa is for Moscow to return to the Black Sea Grain Initiative it pulled out from last month. Furthermore, the makeup of the countries is instructive. Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic and Mali are in prime position to receive this and any other future largesse. These countries also receive the most significant Russian proxy influence on the continent, having regime protection deals with the Wagner Group.

When comparing Ramaphosa’s position with Putin’s response, the former is more sustainable, but the latter is also understandable regarding maintaining Russian strategic interests in the Global South. An alternative exists for other countries on the continent that have dire needs of grain. In January, South Korea’s food ministry announced that its government would establish what it called a “K-rice belt” across seven African countries to advance current Official Development Assistance (ODA) programmes to countries struggling with a shortage of farming infrastructure. The beneficiaries of the initiative include Cameroon, the Gambia, Guinea, Ghana, Kenya, Senegal and Uganda.

Rice is a staple for half the world’s population; in Africa, it is king. Although the rice initiative from South Korea may not be a full substitute for Russian or Ukrainian grain, it provides a window for exploring alternative markets for common food imports. The major obstacle to such diversification is protectionism from key producers such as China and India in the event of a crisis. With weather-induced events in Asia already projected to impact global harvest totals this year, the continent may be best served to brace up for the worst in the short term while developing the policy and implementation framework to chart its path out of dependence.