Daily Watch – Boko Haram infighting intensifies, ECOWAS fixes Niger intervention deadline

Residents of at least 23 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Sokoto, Zamfara and Kebbi States are battling to survive as kidnappers, cattle rustlers, and bandits make life difficult for them. This is according to a survey by the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN). Meanwhile, infighting that broke out between Boko Haram and the Islamic State of West African Province (ISWAP) fighters near Marte, Borno State, has allegedly led to the death of more than 100 terrorists on the two sides. Premium Times said the fighting broke out between the Bakoura Buduma-led faction of Boko Haram and ISWAP over the control of turf around the Lake Chad Basin. According to the online paper, the ISWAP faction was trying to retaliate against the abduction of 60 of its fighters and three commanders by Boko Haram.

Nigeria’s average daily consumption of petrol dropped to 52 million litres in July compared to 64 million litres in the previous month, according to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). Nigeria lost ₦249 billion ($320.4 million) in July as oil output dropped, with data revealing a drop in oil production by over four million barrels between June and July. In a related development, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has agreed to extend Nigeria’s deadline for repaying a $3.4 billion loan to 2027. The loan was originally due to be repaid between 2022 to 2026. 

Ghana’s overall balance of payments will return to surplus in 2023 and 2024, following a record-wide deficit of $4.6 billion in 2022. According to Fitch, the overall balance of payments will be strengthened in 2024 due to an expected improvement in investor sentiment as Ghana makes progress regarding the restructuring of its external debt. This will boost capital inflows and largely offset the small current-account deficit in 2024. Fitch, however, said risks to Ghana’s external position remain significant. It explained that “If negotiations between Ghana and its external creditors stall, investor confidence would weaken, likely triggering another round of capital flight.” This, it said, would lead to greater pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves and the cedi, keeping inflation higher for longer.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) said it had agreed to an undisclosed “D-Day” for a possible military intervention to restore democracy in Niger if diplomatic efforts fail, stressing that it would not hold endless dialogue with the defiant junta. The comments came at the end of a two-day meeting of West African army chiefs in Accra, where they have been hashing out the logistics and strategy for the possible use of force in Niger. ECOWAS has said such action would be a last resort; a peaceful resolution remained the bloc’s preferred option. The regional bloc has also rejected the Niger junta’s three-year power transition plan. Meanwhile, the junta’s supporters were forced to halt a census of people willing to volunteer for non-military defence roles, saying they had been overwhelmed by the numbers who turned up.