Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal: Africa’s failing states are rewriting the rules of the Berlin Conference

Many scholars say that Africa’s modern borders do not make sense. They have a point. East Africa exemplifies this geopolitical complexity, with Ethiopia recently signing an agreement with Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, granting it access to the Red Sea port of Berbera.

Somaliland, which was a British colony called British Somaliland, merged with the Italian-controlled Somaliland to form the country of Somalia in 1960, but declared independence in 1991 after a civil war started in the country. Despite achieving stability, economic growth, and establishing a democratic government, Somaliland is unrecognised internationally, and this, despite its stability, has hindered its economic progress.

The recent agreement with Ethiopia, allowing access to Berbera Port, presents both opportunities and challenges for Somaliland’s quest for international recognition. The deal stipulates a 50-year access to the Red Sea for Ethiopia, with the condition that Ethiopia acknowledges Somaliland as a sovereign independent state. This could lead to a region-wide recognition of Somaliland, thus reshaping East Africa’s geopolitics. This deal potentially positions Somaliland prominently on the global economic stage, could create increased revenue and pave the way for more formal diplomatic relations in the future.

Ethiopia, Africa’s second-largest population and a significant Horn of Africa player, seeks economic and diplomatic security beyond its reliance on Djibouti for international trade and imports. Ethiopia recognises the geopolitical complexities of its neighbourhood in the Horn and the broader Red Sea region. Given the need to safeguard its commercial and security interests, Ethiopia must possess naval capabilities, especially in the face of joint opposition from Egypt and Sudan.

Although Somalia is angry with the development, it does not have the military prowess to force a backoff, thus increasing the deals chances of holding through if Ethiopia is insistent. If it does, it will usher in a new wave of irredentism that the African Union and its predecessor, the Organisation of African Unity structurally frown upon. Since 1960, only a handful of countries on the continent have successfully rewritten the arbitrary borders drawn up in Berlin in 1884 – Eritrea, when it broke away from Ethiopia in 1991, and South Sudan, when it became independent in 2011.

Further afield, the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal raises questions about the fragility of borders within Africa and this has significant implications for political stability, social cohesion, and economic development. Overcoming, or rewriting these artificial divisions is crucial for Africa’s future. If Somaliland slowly moves from a de facto country to a de jure country, we may see more marginalised group take its lead and look out for stronger states to cut deals with that would create facts on the ground for new borders in Africa.

Download complete report (22 pages)