The week ahead – To the brim

Nigeria’s police chief warned against Kenyan-style protests planned for 1 August, sparked by online calls for demonstrations against poor governance and the cost of living crisis. The protests aim to be peaceful, inspired by Kenya’s successful anti-tax hike movement. A recent Afrobarometer report titled “African insights 2024: Democracy at risk – the people’s perspective,” shows only 44% of Nigerians would reject a military takeover if leaders abuse power, contrasting with 66% of Africans across 39 countries who prefer democracy. However, 53% of Africans would accept a military takeover if leaders abuse power, highlighting a democracy crisis. The report underscores concerns about democratic stability in Nigeria and Africa.

Nigeria finds itself at a critical juncture, with economic hardships fuelling widespread discontent and a growing call for change. The most recent SBM Jollof Index published just yesterday shows that a family on the minimum wage of ₦30,000 ($18.87) a month will spend 67% of their income on a single pot of jollof rice, and with the proposed new minimum wage (₦70,00), this proportion of income on a single pot of Nigeria’s favourite meal will fall to 30%. A single meal in a month of meals. In response, Nigerians have taken to social media platforms, urging for protests and demanding government accountability with a fervour that echoes recent events in Kenya. The country’s police chief, seemingly stuck in an outdated paradigm, and against rights enshrined in the 1999 Constitution, has issued a stern warning against these planned demonstrations. However, this top-down approach reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of the shifting power dynamics in the digital age. Gone are the days when official statements could effectively quell dissent through sheer authority. Platforms like X and Facebook have become digital town squares where hundreds of thousands of Nigerian youths rally around shared grievances. The government’s mouthpieces have issued barely veiled threats of violence against potential protesters. These statements, laden with references to the brutal crackdown on the EndSARS movement, seem intended to instil fear and deter civil disobedience. However, this heavy-handed approach may push an already frustrated populace to a dangerous breaking point. The authorities would do well to remember that desperation can breed courage, and a population with nothing left to lose becomes ungovernable. There is a tipping point where the sheer numbers of protesters could overwhelm even the most prepared security apparatus. It would be far wiser for the government to engage in meaningful dialogue, address the root causes of discontent, and implement genuine reforms. The path of threats and violence is treacherous, often leading to outcomes neither side truly desires. Nigeria’s leadership can either heed the voices calling for change or risk pushing their country towards a confrontation that may spiral beyond anyone’s control.

President Bola Tinubu has announced a new monthly minimum wage of ₦70,000 ($44.03) after meeting with union leaders Joe Ajaero, president of the Nigeria Labour Congress and Festus Osifo of the Trade Union Congress. This follows six months of negotiations by the 37-man Tripartite Committee, which ended in deadlock with the government proposing ₦62,000 and the unions demanding ₦250,000. The new minimum wage aims to address workers’ concerns and promote economic growth. The announcement was made by Information Minister Mohammed Idris at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, bringing an end to the prolonged negotiations and setting a new benchmark for workers’ compensation in Nigeria.

It is a relief that the government and organised labour agreed on a minimum wage that is more than double the previous level. While it is a good step, it does little to alleviate the suffering that Nigerians are experiencing because the cost of living expenses has risen exponentially in the last few years. Nigeria has a significant productivity problem, and little is being done to address or even discuss the matter. The current economic strategy centres around tackling inflation using monetary tools while the country’s farmlands and factories remain fallow due to insecurity, lack of power, and infrastructure deficits. As millions of Nigerians remain idle, critical skills that were informally passed on from generations are being lost and may never be replaced. That is the real problem and one that has to be tackled urgently, or else the agitations over the cost of living will not go away as the agreed new minimum wage level is still not enough to solve the cost of living crisis, not to mention that the aforementioned lack of productivity also means that the government will struggle to generate the funds to meet its new commitments. As things are, almost half of the 36 states never implemented the ₦30,000 wage, and given their position during the negotiations, it is unlikely that most states will be in a hurry to move to ₦70,000. The discontent that will create, coupled with the disappointment many will feel when they find that their “improved pay” will not solve their problems, are likely to create new problems entirely or simply worsen the existing ones.

Ghana’s New Patriotic Party flagbearer, Mr Mahamudu Bawumia, has sparked widespread discussion and debate after announcing a new initiative allowing Ghanaians to purchase smartphones on credit and pay a token monthly. During a public address, Bawumia outlined a plan to increase mobile phone ownership among Ghanaians by making the devices more affordable through a structured payment system, stating that his government will partner with phone manufacturers so that Ghanaians can afford them on credit and pay 1 or 2 cedis every month. He suggested this initiative would significantly boost digital inclusion and economic participation nationwide, but many users were sceptical.

Mobile phone connections in Ghana are around 40 million, with approximately 70% of Ghanaians aged 15 and above having smartphone access. Mobile money transactions have reached a trillion cedis ($64.5 billion), benefiting more users and businesses. The Vice President and Flagbearer of the NPP recognises that over 70% of smartphone users in Ghana are between the ages of 15 and 35, a demographic that will play a crucial role in this year’s presidential and parliamentary elections. Data from the Electoral Commission of Ghana indicates that over 1.4 million people have registered to vote in the upcoming elections, with an estimated 2.6 million prospective first-time voters. The NPP hopes to leverage this political capital with a new promise. However, implementing this promise seems unrealistic, given Ghana’s weak local currency and high inflation rates. These economic challenges make it difficult for businesses to partner with the government on such initiatives as capital rapidly erodes in the country. Economic instability has already led several multinational organisations to withdraw from Ghana, unwilling to continue business under these conditions. Moreover, the proposed monthly down payment for the initiative appears laughably low to many Ghanaians, being less than 50 cents a month. This perceived inadequacy further undermines the feasibility and seriousness of the promise.

In a global operation targeting West African organised crime groups across five continents, police arrested 300 people, seized $3 million and blocked 720 bank accounts, Interpol said Tuesday. Operation Jackal III, which ran from 10 April to 3 July in 21 countries, aimed to fight online financial fraud and the West African syndicates behind it, the agency said in a statement. “The volume of financial fraud stemming from West Africa is alarming and increasing,” said Isaac Oginni, director of Interpol’s Financial Crime and Anti-Corruption Centre. One targeted group was Black Axe, a prominent West African criminal network involved in cyber fraud, human trafficking and drug smuggling.

Cybercrime, human trafficking and kidnapping have reached epidemic levels in West Africa due to the increasing use of technology and internet penetration. The UN projects that the region’s population will reach approximately one billion by 2075, with over 500 million individuals aged 25 to 64. Of even greater concern is the projected 31.2% unemployment rate among those aged 15 to 24, which creates a fertile ground for cybercriminals and human traffickers. In Ghana, for instance, about 20% of the youth are unemployed and not in education or training, making them vulnerable to involvement in these illegal activities. In Nigeria, expanding digital technology and internet usage have facilitated cybercrime. While many cybercrimes originate locally in Nigeria, they often involve collaboration with nationals from other countries, such as South Africa, Cameroon, and Ghana. The metamorphosis of Black Axe, originally a campus-based youth gang, into a transnational crime network, indicates this succinctly. According to a February 2023 United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime report, up to 50% of medicines in West Africa are fake or substandard, often arriving from countries like Belgium, China, France and India through ports in Benin, Ghana, Guinea, Nigeria and Togo. Financial fraud supports these illegal trades; in Nigeria, youth gangs have turned to online fraud like “Yahoo” scams. The growth of electronic payment has given room for the continued prevalence of online fraud, with banks recording 78,584 cases in a year, according to FITC’s “Reports on Frauds and Forgeries in Nigerian Banks.” Between the second quarter of 2022 and the second quarter of 2023, over 10,098 fraud cases involving ₦1.95 billion ($1.23 million) were recorded on PoS channels. Cybersecurity awareness in Africa is still nascent, and financial institutions often fail to report breaches to regulators and customers as required. A potential solution is an international effort to dismantle Black Axe; however, the weak regulatory environment means another group could quickly emerge to take its place, potentially with greater sophistication.