Africa Watch – Allies in the Horn

21st October 2024

The presidents of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia agreed to enhance cooperation to strengthen the Somali army against “terrorism” and protect its land and sea borders, which could isolate Ethiopia further. Ethiopia, with thousands of troops in Somalia fighting al Qaeda-linked insurgents, has tensions with Mogadishu over its plans to build a port in the breakaway region of Somaliland. Meanwhile, Sudanese warlord Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, AKA Hemedti, accused Egypt of conducting airstrikes on his troops and training and supplying drones to Sudan’s army. Hemedti’s claims come as Sudan’s army gains the upper hand in the 18-month-long conflict ravaging the country.

This agreement marks a significant development in East African geopolitics. While this move highlights a unified front against common security threats, primarily posed by al-Qaeda-linked insurgents, the end goal is to isolate Ethiopia in a region already rife with tension.

A potential area for improving relations between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa lies in the presence of Ethiopian troops in Somalia. Currently, Ethiopia has thousands of troops stationed in Southwest, Jubaland, and Hirshabelle. Regional officials are concerned despite Somali National Security Adviser Hussein Sheikh-Ali’s desire for Ethiopian troops to leave by December ahead of the mandate renewal in January 2025. They fear that the withdrawal of the Ethiopian forces could create a power vacuum, leading to a resurgence of Al Shabaab, a major security threat in the region. Mogadishu’s decision to press on with its push for Ethiopia’s exit comes from the confidence that alternative arrangements with Egyptian and Turkish troops will fill in such gaps.

In the broader context, beyond the symbolism of Ethiopia’s rivals forming a hostile ring around it, it further entrenches Cairo’s growing influence in the Horn of Africa. Eritrea’s role in this coalition is also significant, as it has historically been an actor in the Horn of Africa’s complex political landscape. Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia are also involved in Sudan’s civil war. They are aligned with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, which back the Sudanese Army in the ongoing conflict. Meanwhile, Ethiopia has a close partnership with the United Arab Emirates, which supports Hemedti’s rebels.

Cairo’s actions are driven by concerns over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is seen as a threat to its Nile water supply, so it is taking advantage of its dispute with Addis Ababa over the GERD to increase its presence beyond the Red Sea. Egypt denies Hemedti’s claims that it supplies American-made bombs and drones to the Sudanese Armed Forces. Besides mediating in the conflict, Egypt aims to prevent the RSF from gaining power due to its Islamist ideals, which conflict with Cairo’s history with the Muslim Brotherhood. An RSF victory could also increase the United Arab Emirates’ influence in East Africa, near Egypt’s border.

This evolving situation presents a multifaceted challenge for the East African countries as they navigate their security priorities while managing complex relationships with one another. As Ethiopia finds itself increasingly isolated, the potential for instability in the region remains high. The collaboration among Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia may yield short-term benefits in addressing terrorism, but it also risks deepening divisions and fostering an environment of mistrust in which a miscalculation could lead to open conflict between countries.