Caught in the crossfire: Second-Order effects of the Middle East Crisis on West Africa
10th October 2024
Between the last week of September and the first week of October, the conflict between Israel and Hamas took a horrific turn following Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon that killed Hassan Nasrallah, the long-time leader of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Shia militia group. This act triggered retaliatory attacks from Iran, significantly heightening tensions in the region and raising fears of a broader war between Israel and Iran. As Nigerians observe these developments, many have drawn parallels with our experience with militant groups like Boko Haram, where the targeted killing of its leader paved the way for a more radicalised successor, extreme jihadist ideologies, and prolonged instability.
Given the similarities between Hezbollah and Boko Haram’s operations and decentralised structures, the same dynamic could easily play out in Hezbollah following Nasrallah’s death. In both cases, the groups’ cell-based structures allow for operational continuity despite leadership loss, enhanced resilience through decentralised decision-making, and opportunities for radicalisation and recruitment.
Geopolitically, the conflict poses risks for West African nations, as jihadist groups like Boko Haram, Al-Qaeda and ISWAP could leverage the rhetoric surrounding the conflict to intensify recruitment efforts and justify their insurgencies as efforts to “defend Islam” against perceived enemies. The conflict could serve as a rallying point to strengthen ties with other jihadist movements across Africa and the Middle East, solidifying a transnational jihadist network and exacerbating regional instability.
Economically, the Israel-Lebanon crisis threatens to impact oil-dependent economies in West Africa. Rising global oil prices could worsen inflation, particularly in Ghana and Nigeria, where the oil sector plays a pivotal role in government revenues. The conflict highlights the deep interconnection of global events, and the potential ripple effects should prompt a reevaluation of energy policies in West Africa to mitigate vulnerabilities to external shocks. Enhanced regional cooperation and increased local refining capacities are critical towards building a more resilient energy system.
Download complete report (18 pages)