The SBM Jollof Index: Crisis on the Menu

31st October 2024

The food crisis in Nigeria and Ghana has reached critical proportions, with rising food costs dominating public discourse. For eight years in Nigeria and four in Ghana, a convergence of factors—such as government policies, persistent insecurity, and natural disasters—has fueled significant increases in food prices, placing heavy financial burdens on households.

In Nigeria, food inflation has remained high, averaging 39.53% in June and July 2024 before slightly easing to 37.77% in September. Despite these minor adjustments, hyperinflation has deepened food insecurity, pushing prices beyond the reach of many and sparking public unrest. Although the Nigerian government has introduced temporary measures to address food shortages and rising prices, these efforts have not fully offset the inflationary impact on low-income families, whose purchasing power continues to decline.

According to SBM Intelligence’s Jollof Index, which has tracked food price changes since 2016 by assessing the cost of preparing jollof rice, the average price of cooking a pot of jollof rice in Nigeria rose from ₦20,274 in June to ₦21,579 in September, marking a 6.4% increase. While the cost of tomatoes and peppers eased from over ₦100,000 to between ₦18,000 and ₦30,000 in August and September, other staple foods continued to rise, making it increasingly challenging for families to meet basic dietary needs. High energy costs, insecurity, increased petrol prices, and frequent floods have compounded these issues.

Trends across the 13 Nigerian markets surveyed were mixed. Some markets experienced price declines, while others saw increases or stability. Onitsha Market saw the largest price drop, while Awka and Lagos’ Trade Fair Market experienced slight decreases. In contrast, Nyanya Market in Abuja recorded the sharpest increase, driven by local supply chain disruptions and rising transportation costs. These regional variations underscore the complex landscape of food inflation across Nigeria, with factors like transportation costs, climate effects, and regional supply dynamics driving price fluctuations.

In Ghana, food inflation moderated slightly, dropping from 24.0% in June to 19.1% in August before rising to 21.5% in September. However, this modest improvement provides limited relief for Ghanaians as economic challenges continue to limit food accessibility. Seasonal changes, financial pressures, and the Ghanaian currency’s depreciation against the dollar have further eroded purchasing power.

The fluctuations in the cost of preparing jollof rice in Nigeria and Ghana highlight the volatile nature of food prices across West Africa. Although temporary decreases in Nigeria and Ghana’s USD jollof rice costs would on the surface appear to have provided brief relief, the underlying economic conditions continue to challenge the stability of food prices. In summary, despite falling forex prices of our favourite meal, Jollof rice is getting costlier for people earning in Naira (NGN) and Cedis (GHS). This has impacts that extend to malnutrition, crime rates, and broader socio-economic strain. Building resilient food systems in West Africa is critical to offsetting these pressures.

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