Africa Watch – Votes to violence

South Africa has closed its main border crossing with Mozambique, the Lebombo port of entry, amid escalating protests over Mozambique’s disputed October election, which opposition groups allege was rigged in favour of the ruling Frelimo party. At least 30 protesters have died since 9 October, with recent clashes leading to additional injuries and fatalities, including incidents involving police violence. Protests are expected to intensify with a march planned in Maputo, and opposition leader Venancio Mondlane called for nationwide demonstrations targeting key locations from November 13-15. Those demonstrations have been met with violence. Authorities have also restricted internet access to curb unrest, and the election results remain uncertified.

The election turmoil in Mozambique underscores a deeper political crisis within the country, where public frustration with governance and perceived electoral manipulation has sparked violent confrontations. The intensity of the protests, which have seen numerous injuries and deaths, highlights a breakdown in trust between the government and its citizens. On Friday, the government accused protest organisers of drug use, and then banned protests altogether.

With the election results still uncertified, tensions remain high, creating an atmosphere ripe for continued unrest. The unrest is set against Mozambique’s complex history, including a 15-year civil war between Frelimo and the rebel group Renamo after independence.

The country faces ongoing challenges, including an insurgency by locally named Al-Shabaab, an Islamic State-affiliated group in the northern province of Cabo Delgado which has forced roughly a million people from their homes, killed an estimated 4,000 civilians, and stunted economic growth in a gas and resource-rich province. The potential for armed groups to exploit the unrest forced South Africa to shut its border with Mozambique even though the terror problem is far away in Northern Mozambique. With at least 30 fatalities since the protests began and incidents of police violence escalating, the closure is a significant step to control cross-border movement and to prevent the spread of unrest into South African territory.

This decision will likely affect the informal trade in the communities between Southern Mozambique and Northern South Africa. The Lebombo border is a critical commercial gateway between the two countries. Although the exact data of how much trade goes on at the border is hard to come by, the decision to shut the border will have a significant economic impact. In 2022, Mozambique exported $1.07 billion to South Africa, with main products including petroleum gas ($480 million), electricity ($305 million), and coal briquettes ($46.6 million). On the other hand, South Africa exported a substantial $5.43 billion to Mozambique, with key products being ferroalloys ($1.01 billion), chromium ore ($903 million), and coal briquettes ($627 million). In 2023, South Africa’s exports to Mozambique reached $6.18 billion, with top products including ores, slag, and ash ($2.19 billion), iron and steel ($1.16 billion), and mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products ($786.52 million).

South Africa’s decision to close its border symbolises an initial step toward a regional response to Mozambique’s crisis. By this move, South Africa appears to rule out a direct mediation role for itself, choosing rather to work within the confines of the Southern Africa Development Commission which has been scheduled for an emergency session this week. The SADC’s involvement signals a shift toward prioritising regional stability. It could encourage Mozambique to pursue dialogue and de-escalation strategies to maintain its standing in the regional community.

From an economic and humanitarian perspective, the ongoing unrest and internet shutdowns pose significant risks. The restrictions at Lebombo and the potential for continued internet blackouts will likely disrupt essential trade flows and lead to shortages of goods and services, hitting Mozambique and border areas in South Africa. If unrest continues, the economic toll on Mozambique, already grappling with poverty and recovery from past insurgencies, could be substantial, particularly in rural communities.

The international community is observing the situation closely, especially given the Mozambican government’s handling of the protests and the reported use of force against civilians. Calls for transparent investigations into police violence and civil rights protection, including access to information and freedom of assembly, will likely grow. The unrest following the disputed election could become a defining moment for Mozambique’s political future and regional role. How the government responds, whether through constructive dialogue or intensified repression, will set a precedent for governance and human rights in the region. South Africa’s role in this situation, alongside potential actions by SADC, will be crucial for shaping a peaceful and sustainable resolution to the crisis.