The 2024 Africa Country Instability Risk Index

2024 has been a busy year for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Elections in major countries such as Senegal and South Africa have largely defined the region. Attempted coups in some countries in the Sahel further added to the growing instability, as did climate issues such as floods and drought. Notably, the issues in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have had an outsized geopolitical impact on the region, colouring a great focus on its international outlook. These effects include an estimated loss of $10 billion in foreign direct investments–approximately half a percent of SSA’s annual GDP growth.

The African Country Instability Risk Report (Aciri) assesses the political, economic and social factors contributing to Sub-Saharan Africa’s political instability. It provides a framework for assessing the risk of coups d’état using factors such as ethnic tension, the country’s history of coups, dominant ethnic groups, economic concentration, ageing leaders and monoproduct, bi-product or multi-product economies.

This report is an update to last year’s Africa Country Instability Risk Report, which assesses the political, economic, and social factors contributing to the region’s political instability. It provides a framework for assessing the risk of coups d’état using factors such as ethnic tension, the country’s history of coups, dominant ethnic groups, economic concentration, ageing leaders and monoproduct, bi-product or multi-product economies. The Aciri breaks down the challenges and opportunities for stakeholders in each region and offers recommendations on mitigating risks, maximising opportunities, and making informed decisions about investing and operating in Sub-Saharan Africa.

For the second year running, Southern Africa retained its spot as the most stable region, with a score change of -1.3. In reverse, Central Africa was the least stable, ending the year with a score change of 6.78, performing worse than East (1.07) and West (2.47).

Regional Breakdown

West Africa is a diverse region with a mix of economies from Nigeria, Benin and Ghana to the landlocked Sahel states of Burkina Faso and Mali. It is economically promising but faces political instability, security threats, economic inequality and climate change. Despite these hurdles, West Africa offers agriculture, mining and tourism opportunities.

Central Africa‘s history is marked by coups, civil wars, ethnic tensions, fragile institutions and economic dependence on oil and precious stones, making the region vulnerable to global price fluctuations. Terrorism, armed conflicts and organised crime hinder development and stability. Unique risks include the ongoing DRC conflict, armed groups in the Central African Republic and the looming threat of terrorism by Boko Haram and Al-Qaeda in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).

Also, the Aciri evaluates the risks in East Africa. The region houses some of the fastest-growing economies and the most fragile states in the world, but it faces ethnic and religious tensions, exemplified by the recent clashes in Kenya. Likewise, economic protests have occurred in Ethiopia. However, the region offers opportunities in agriculture, tourism and telecommunications. Positioned at the crossroads of Africa, Asia and the Middle East, the region is strategically important for trade and investment.

Finally, the Aciri probes the risks in Southern Africa, spotlighting countries like South Africa and Zimbabwe. South Africa grapples with economic inequality, while Eswatini and Lesotho face political instability. But Botswana and Angola offer opportunities for businesses and investors. Abundant natural resources, including minerals and oil, provide a strong foundation for growth.

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