The week ahead – Trigger-nometry

Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.46% in Q3 2024, up from 3.19% in Q2 and 2.54% in Q3 2023. The growth was mainly driven by the services sector, which grew by 5.19% and contributed 53.58% to GDP. Oil production averaged 1.47 million barrels daily, with a real growth of 5.17%. The non-oil sector grew by 3.37%. Nigeria’s unemployment rate was 4.3% in Q2 2024. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Nigeria raised its benchmark lending rate to 27.50%, marking its sixth hike this year, and reported foreign reserves at $40.88 billion as of 21 November 2024.

While headline GDP growth numbers exceeding projections are being celebrated — as seen in the presidency’s recent statements — the details tell a more troubling story. Key sectors like manufacturing, which should serve as engines of job creation and economic diversification, have contracted, reflecting a worrisome inability to catalyse industrial growth. Trade, another vital sector, remains stagnant, highlighting persistent structural issues and weak consumer purchasing power. Meanwhile, inflation continues its relentless climb, eroding disposable incomes and worsening living standards, even as the central bank persists with aggressive interest rate hikes. These measures, while aimed at curbing inflation, have inadvertently depressed the real sector, stifling investment and business expansion. The announcement of growing reserves has been portrayed as a success story. However, this improvement has yet to stabilise the naira, which continues its downward spiral, undermining confidence in the foreign exchange market. This disconnect between government pronouncements and real-world outcomes raises scepticism about the integrity and reliability of reported economic indicators. It is also crucial to contextualise Nigeria’s GDP growth in global and regional terms. While a GDP growth rate of 2–3% might seem reasonable for developed economies, it is insufficient for a developing country like Nigeria, which has a population growth rate of 2.42%. According to the United Nations, developing economies need a GDP growth rate of at least 6–7% annually to make meaningful progress in reducing poverty and improving living standards. Nigeria’s current growth trajectory falls woefully short of what is required to improve the citizens’ lives. The most concerning aspect of Nigeria’s recent GDP statistics is the stagnation in agriculture, the country’s largest employer and a cornerstone of food security. With over 70% of Nigerians relying on the agricultural sector directly or indirectly for their livelihoods, its stagnation represents a significant threat to economic stability and poverty reduction. Chronic challenges such as inadequate infrastructure, limited access to credit, climate change, and insecurity continue to plague the sector. Achieving the necessary 6–7% annual GDP growth will remain elusive unless these systemic issues are addressed.

A General Household Survey by Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics reveals that nearly two-thirds of Nigerian households face hunger due to financial constraints. The proportion of households unable to afford sufficient food surged from 37% in 2019 to 62.4% in 2023. Alarmingly, 12.3% reported going an entire day without eating. Food inflation, reaching a near 30-year high of 41% in June, has exacerbated the crisis, with 21% of households depending on support from friends or relatives. Malnutrition is rising, with 25% of children classified as underweight, up from 19% in 2019, underscoring the dire physical toll on vulnerable populations.

The data shows that food prices have significantly outpaced income growth over the past four years. Insights from our work with the Jollof Index over the last eight years highlight a troubling trajectory. Initially, Nigerians shifted to cheaper substitutes as staple foods became unaffordable amid a steep decline in purchasing power. However, even these alternatives have become too expensive, forcing many to skip meals or reduce the quality and quantity of their food. This shift has led to a rise in hunger and malnutrition. Poor nutrition weakens immune systems, disrupts productivity, and slows economic growth. Protein sources have seen the steepest price increases among five food groups. According to the NBS, the price of 1kg of beans surged by 254% to ₦2,799 in October 2024, up from ₦1,790 a year earlier. 1kg of frozen chicken nearly doubled to ₦5,972, while a piece of Agric egg spiked by 127%. This protein deficiency is already causing stunted growth, particularly among children. Proteins are essential for brain and cognitive development, fostering intelligence and creativity. Families are also cutting back on fruits, with only 38% of households consuming them, according to the NBS. Furthermore, more than one-third of households reported food shortages, especially in June, July, and August. This is notable because inflation dropped in July and August before peaking in September and October, suggesting a disconnect between inflation metrics and actual food accessibility. In recent years, persistent insecurity, supply chain disruptions, climate change, elevated energy prices, floods, weakened naira, and high farm input costs have constrained the agricultural sector’s growth to below 3%. The Farming Early Warning System Network recently predicted further deterioration in food security from November 2024 through May 2025, driven by poor harvest yields. This paints a bleak picture: food production will likely decline further unless policymakers urgently address the root causes of this crisis, including inflation, supply chain inefficiencies, and currency instability. Targeted interventions—subsidies, agricultural investments, and social safety nets—are essential to safeguard nutritional well-being and economic stability. Without decisive action, escalating food inflation will leave more Nigerians unable to afford the most basic human need—food. Tackling this issue must be the government’s top priority.

Nigeria’s federal government withheld Rivers State’s October FAAC revenue, escalating tensions between Governor Simi Fubara and FCT Minister Nyesom Wike. The Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation cited compliance with legal rulings but assured adherence to court orders, including a pending appeal that may allow payment to Rivers. Meanwhile, the Kano State Internal Revenue Service (KIRS) shut down Max Air Limited, Dantata and Sawoe Construction, and Northern Rice and Oil Milling for unpaid taxes. Debts range from ₦241.2 million to arrears dating back to 2012. The closures, enforced by court orders, will persist until the companies settle their liabilities.

Over the past few months, the battle between Nyesom Wike, former Rivers State governor and current federal capital minister, and Siminalayi Fubara, Mr Wike’s successor in Rivers, has escalated, reflecting deeper political and economic tensions. Wike’s waning influence in Rivers has forced him to rely on legal mechanisms, complicating governance in a state vital to Nigeria’s fiscal health. Rivers’ economic stability is essential for national balance as one of the leading contributors to Nigeria’s Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) and Federal Allocation (FAAC) collections. While the federal government has claimed compliance with legal processes, withholding October’s FAAC revenue underscores the urgent need for a robust legal and political resolution to prevent further economic strain. At the other end of the country, the developments in Kano highlight the increasing assertiveness of state revenue agencies in enforcing tax compliance. The companies shut down by the Kano State Internal Revenue Service (KIRS) include Max Air Limited, Dantata and Sawoe Construction, and Northern Rice and Oil Milling. These closures, backed by court orders, reflect a broader trend of subnational governments intensifying efforts to improve their revenue generation capabilities amid dwindling federal allocations. Kano’s actions, while legally grounded, carry significant implications. On one hand, they underscore the need for corporate entities to fulfil their tax obligations as a civic and economic responsibility. On the other, they expose systemic challenges in tax administration, including delayed enforcement and poor compliance monitoring, which allow arrears to accumulate over extended periods. Prolonged closures of these businesses could disrupt economic activities, hinder employment, and potentially discourage regional investment in a part of the country that needs more, not less, economic development. Both cases—Rivers’ FAAC impasse and Kano’s tax crackdown—highlight the broader fiscal pressures facing Nigeria’s federal and subnational governments. The federal government may need a more hands-on approach to prevent further economic disruptions. This could include mediating between states and agencies to resolve disputes without undermining governance or the business environment. For Rivers, the onus remains on the federal government to ensure timely legal compliance while safeguarding fiscal autonomy. The state government must demonstrate that it has filed an appeal and obtained a stay of execution while navigating the court system. Though politically motivated, the court order to halt allocations remains valid, and Rivers must address it through the same legal channels. Rivers is one of the few states capable of maintaining day-to-day operations without FAAC, but this situation will constrain its fiscal flexibility. From a geopolitical perspective, there is a likelihood that non-state actors capable of disrupting oil production may be mobilised to press their point, potentially causing disruptions in the sector. Kano, on its part, must balance strict tax enforcement with the imperative to maintain a business-friendly climate, possibly by introducing phased payment plans or incentives for voluntary compliance. Fostering cooperation between governments and businesses is critical to Nigeria’s economic resilience.

The Ghana Police Service has arrested Kumasi-based radio and television presenter Oheneba Nana Asiedu for allegedly spreading false information under Section 208 of the Criminal Offences Act, 1960 (Act 29). A viral video shows him making misleading claims about voting procedures for the upcoming 7 December elections, which authorities say could disrupt public peace. Meanwhile, the opposition NDC has accused the ruling NPP of printing fake ballot papers and planning voter intimidation in NDC strongholds. In a press release, the NDC, led by John Mahama, vowed to resist electoral manipulation and called on the Electoral Commission and the government to ensure free and fair elections.

The arrest of Oheneba Nana Asiedu and the subsequent allegations from Ghana’s political parties illustrate the complex interplay between media freedom, misinformation, and political tensions in the lead-up to next Sunday’s elections. Ghana is home to over 700 radio stations, with many owned by politically exposed persons. This ownership structure has aided the spread of fake news and politically-influenced narratives, particularly during election years. The issue has intensified as media outlets with apparent political affiliations dominate public discourse through ownership or sponsorship. Their messaging is often infused with hate speech and disinformation, targeting specific groups to gain political advantage. Oheneba Nana Asiedu’s case exemplifies this trend. His radio station, owned by a regional chairman of the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) and in the party’s Ashanti Region stronghold, wields considerable influence. This region accounts for approximately 18% of national votes, making it a pivotal battleground. Broadcasting predominantly in Akan, a widely spoken language in Ghana, the station amplifies its reach and potential to misinform, aggravating the damage caused by such content. This case reflects a larger systemic issue. Across radio, television, print, and online platforms, politically motivated disinformation continues to spread, especially during election periods. These campaigns often aim to incite divisions, provoke violence, or secure unfair political gains. The 2024 elections, while marked by peaceful campaigns and enhanced security, are overshadowed by a surge in fake news and hate speech. Striking a balance between protecting free speech and curbing harmful misinformation is critical to safeguarding public trust and electoral integrity. While the Criminal Offences Act 1960 (Act 29), criminalises false news likely to disturb public peace, enforcing this provision raises critical questions about free speech. Arresting journalists, especially during election periods, risks being perceived as an attempt to stifle dissent, regardless of intent. Authorities must exercise caution, ensuring such actions are transparently and impartially executed to avoid exacerbating political tensions. The opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) has further heightened the stakes by accusing the ruling NPP of voter intimidation and circulating fake ballot papers. These allegations, if proven, could severely undermine public confidence in the electoral process. However, baseless claims only deepen distrust among the electorate. The NDC must substantiate its allegations with concrete evidence to avoid being dismissed as inflammatory rhetoric. This situation places a heavy responsibility on the Electoral Commission (EC), which must work diligently to maintain its credibility. The EC’s commitment to transparency in the electoral process—including ballot printing, voter verification, and result collation—will be pivotal. Clear communication, independent observation, and swift dispute responses can reinforce public confidence. Proactively engaging with political stakeholders could also help reduce the adversarial tone of the campaign. The broader challenge of misinformation requires a collective response. Media houses must adhere to professional standards, prioritising accuracy and fairness. Regulators like the National Media Commission should promote training programs for journalists on handling sensitive political reporting. Civil society organisations could educate the public on identifying and rejecting fake news. Ghana’s political parties must also ensure a peaceful election. The NDC’s vow to resist manipulation must not escalate into actions threatening peace. Both the NDC and NPP should prioritise dialogue and commit to resolving disputes through lawful and institutional mechanisms. As Ghana approaches its elections, the focus must remain on fostering trust, upholding democratic principles, and ensuring that electoral outcomes reflect the people’s will.