The week ahead – Whiplash

On Friday, 8 November, Nigeria’s Human Rights Commission (NHRC) said that it found “no evidence” that the Nigerian military intentionally targeted women and children or conducted secret abortions during its counterinsurgency efforts in the Northeast. This conclusion follows an 18-month investigation into three Reuters reports published in December 2022, which alleged that the military ran an illegal abortion program and massacred children. The NHRC’s investigation included interviews with 199 witnesses, including military personnel, former militants, women who had been freed from Boko Haram captivity and local and foreign aid agencies. However, not all witnesses were named in the report.

The allegations stemmed from a December 2022 report by Reuters, which claimed that since 2013, the Nigerian military had coerced women into undergoing over 10,000 abortions as part of its counter-insurgency efforts against Boko Haram. The report suggested that many of these women were victims of sexual violence, having been kidnapped and raped by militants. It cited interviews with numerous individuals, including victims and military personnel, alleging that women who resisted abortion were subjected to violence or coercion. In response to these serious accusations, the NHRC established a Special Independent Investigative Panel to examine the claims thoroughly. The panel, chaired by retired Supreme Court Justice Abdul Aboki, included members from various sectors, including the judiciary and civil society, and conducted extensive hearings and witness interviews. Upon concluding its investigation, the NHRC reported that it found no evidence to substantiate the claims of a secret abortion program run by the military. Their investigation involved interviewing 199 witnesses, including military personnel and former captives of Boko Haram. The NHRC’s investigation presents a complex picture. While the panel determined that there was no operational policy or practice within the military to conduct illegal abortions, thus exonerating the military from abortion-related allegations, the NHRC found evidence of infanticide and unlawful killings in specific instances, such as an incident in Abisare village in Borno State in 2016. The NHRC’s findings have significant implications for human rights discourse in Nigeria and beyond. Reuters’ report was based on numerous testimonies; however, the NHRC’s findings suggest a need for corroborative evidence when making serious allegations against state actors. It is crucial to note the complexities in investigating sensitive, wartime human rights issues, as many sources may be reluctant to speak openly about abuses due to fear of retribution or social stigma, especially in conflict zones like northeastern Nigeria. Still, the lack of evidence found by the NHRC does not preclude the possibility that isolated abortions might have occurred, reflecting a broader challenge in conflict zones where documentation and accountability are particularly challenging. The acknowledgement of specific human rights violations by the military indicates ongoing issues regarding accountability and oversight within Nigeria’s armed forces. For survivors of Boko Haram’s violence, the dismissal of these allegations may complicate their narratives and experiences. It highlights a potential disconnect between reported experiences and institutional responses to those experiences. As Nigeria continues to grapple with insurgency-related violence, ensuring transparency and protecting vulnerable populations remain paramount for both governmental and non-governmental entities involved in humanitarian efforts. It is difficult to take the outcome of a Nigerian government institution investigating another Nigerian government institution of such serious human rights abuses over an independent investigation carried out by international media. In 2017, Beth Ellen Cole of the US Department of State and US Counterterrorism Assistance to Nigeria quoted several abuses. Others such as Amnesty International and the Carnegie Foundation have also reported on said abuses. In addition, it is well within the known behaviour of the Nigerian military to engage in abuses of civilians in its operations. We are therefore inclined to agree with the plethora of sources and disagree with this NHRC declaration.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Nigeria from 16 to 17 November 2024 at the invitation of Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. It will be the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister in 17 years. Modi will hold talks with Nigerian leaders to strengthen the strategic partnership and explore new areas for bilateral cooperation. He will also address the Indian community in Nigeria, where over 200 Indian companies have invested more than $27 billion in key sectors, according to India’s Ministry of External Affairs.

India is Nigeria’s key trade partner. In 2022, Nigeria exported over $8 billion to India and imported nearly $5.5 billion in return. Significantly, India is one of the largest markets for Nigeria’s main export: crude oil. For Nigeria to increase production, it must secure reliable markets for its crude, and India is a logical partner. Additionally, a thriving Indian community is actively involved in some of Nigeria’s most critical sectors, highlighting the importance of deepening ties between the two countries. Strategically, this relationship is overdue for strengthening. India has successfully implemented many economic and growth policies Nigeria aims to adopt, facing challenges similar to Nigeria’s while operating as the world’s largest democracy.

Manufacturers in Nigeria are facing a severe crisis, with the inventory of unsold finished products soaring to ₦1.24 trillion in the first half of 2024, a 357.6% increase from ₦271 billion in 2023’s first half, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) stated in its H1 Economic Review report. MAN attributes this “alarming increase” to weakened consumer purchasing power amid escalating inflation, subsidy removal, and naira devaluation, coupled with high electricity costs and rising energy expenses. Meanwhile, Multichoice Nigeria lost 243,000 DStv and GOtv subscribers between April and September 2024, citing high inflation impacting household budgets. Across its African operations, Multichoice faced 566,000 subscriber losses over six months.

In both cases, declining demand is largely driven by the loss of purchasing power of the consumers, resulting in the decimation of demand for non-essential items, and a drop in even essentials. The biggest implication of recent reforms by the Tinubu administration was the significant devaluation of the naira which caused the spending capacity of Nigerians to drop substantially in the last year. Any wage increase received by Nigerians has not translated to any gains because inflation has wiped out any such gains. The average Nigerian is much poorer than a year ago and there appears to be no respite. Thus, people have eliminated non-essential expenses, as the average Nigerian now spends roughly 97% of their income on food, according to a 2023 SBM income survey. The remaining portion goes toward transportation and loan repayments. As the Multichoice report demonstrates, this trend is not limited to Nigeria; the company has experienced subscriber losses in other markets facing similar economic pressures. However, this is not the full story. For years, Multichoice targeted the premium market segment, catering to customers who could afford higher-end packages with exclusive movie series, music, and sports content. They also appealed to the lower market segment, which prioritised quantity over content quality. Overall, Multichoice was the largest investor in content creation and licensing in Nigeria. However, new competitors have emerged, targeting specific segments—like Netflix and Amazon Prime for quality-conscious, high-end users, or YouTube for quantity-seeking viewers—and branching into new content verticals like YouTube and TikTok for music. Unlike Multichoice, platforms like YouTube and TikTok offer monetisation strategies that reward content creators without high financial barriers, incentivising creators to migrate. This shift has worsened Multichoice’s subscriber losses, with more viewers drawn to these alternate platforms.

Ghana’s Supreme Court ruled that Speaker Alban Bagbin’s declaration of four parliamentary seats as vacant was unconstitutional. NPP caucus leader Alexander Afenyo-Markin had appealed the decision, arguing that Bagbin’s move to declare seats vacant—after two NPP lawmakers, one National Democratic Congress lawmaker, and one NPP-aligned member registered for the 7 December election as independents or with the NPP—was unlawful. Chief Justice Gertrude Torkornoo announced the 5:2 majority ruling in favour of Afenyo-Markin, allowing parliament to resume normal operations. Parliament is now expected to approve a $250 million World Bank loan to support the financial sector and provide tax relief to businesses.

Ghana’s democracy has recently been tested on fundamental principles of the rule of law, separation of powers, and checks and balances, with the country’s Supreme Court playing a central role. This scrutiny peaked following a parliamentary directive by the Speaker of Parliament, which declared four parliamentary seats vacant. This move temporarily altered the balance of power in Ghana’s Parliament, giving the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) a slim majority and relegating the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) to a minority position. The apex court, however, ruled in a 5-2 decision that the Speaker’s directive was unconstitutional, effectively overturning the NDC’s short-lived majority status. This ruling has restored the previous composition, with the NPP as the majority party. In light of the court’s decision, the Speaker has suspended Ghana’s Parliament due to the ruling NPP’s series of boycotts, which have prevented the body from reaching a quorum to conduct business. Despite the Supreme Court’s clear ruling, some NDC Members of Parliament have expressed their intention to defy the decision and continue asserting their “majority” status, while the NPP is pushing for the Speaker to recall the House in compliance with the Supreme Court’s judgement. This standoff has significant implications for governance in Ghana, as the suspension of parliamentary activity has stalled government business, highlighting the political stakes involved as the country approaches its 7 December elections. Both parties recognise the political capital to be gained or lost in this high-stakes situation, with citizens and stakeholders watching the move closely.