Trump returns: A West African plot twist

Trump’s Historic Comeback
By 0534ET on 6 November 2024, it had become clear that former US President Donald Trump had won the 2024 US presidential election following the race call by the Associated Press. Mr Trump beat the challenge by Vice President Kamala Harris, becoming only the second US president to serve non-consecutive terms after Grover Cleveland was elected in 1884 and 1892.

Globally, Trump’s return to the White House signals different things to different people. For Europeans, it could mean the end of American support for Ukraine in its war with Russia. In the Middle East, it could mark a change from the Biden administration’s seeming ambivalence to Israel’s wars with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iran to full-throated support. Trump’s foreign policy outlook is expected to return to an “America First” approach, particularly in US-China relations, where a renewed trade war is possible with potential global ripple effects.

Shifts in US-Africa Policy: Implications for Africa’s economy and stability
Africa, especially West Africa, could feel the brunt of US strategic shifts. In his first term, Trump’s foreign policy toward Africa followed strategic competition and containment doctrine, heavily influenced by his third National Security Adviser, John Bolton. The first Trump administration viewed Africa through a lens of countering Chinese influence, and the Biden administration continued with this approach. We expect it to continue, albeit with reduced engagement. In his first term, Trump did not prioritise Africa; neither he nor his Vice President visited the continent. Although Mr Bolton has long fallen out with Trump, the latter’s current foreign policy influencers such as Elbridge Colby, Richard Grenell, Christopher Miller, and Stephen Miller are of the same stock – with a China-focused outlook. This means that Africa will rank low on Trump’s White House priority list, especially West Africa.

In the run-up to the election, one defining feature between the US and West Africa is the series of coups in the Western Sahel. The 2023 military coup in Niger, which led to strained US-Niger relations and the expulsion of US forces, underscored America’s faltering foothold in the region. In 2017, four US servicemen were killed by terrorists in the Tingo area of Niger, which led to concerns in the US about America’s military spending and commitment in far-flung remote parts of the world. The second Trump administration is likely to reduce direct US security involvement further, avoiding military presence in areas where anti-Western sentiment is high, such as Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. With limited US engagement, rival nations like Russia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates will likely strengthen their regional influence.

Trump’s return may bring economic policy shifts that impact African trade and aid. In terms of aid relations, one important area that could take a hit is the funding of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) – an agency that the authors of Project 2025 have decried as ‘too woke’ and a tool for what Max Primorac at the Heritage Foundation (which put the project together) described as ‘a divisive political and cultural agenda that promotes abortion, climate extremism, gender radicalism, and interventions against perceived systemic racism.’ Some of the innovations that USAID/Nigeria is funding through development support include online platforms that connect farmers to customers and services; access to solar refrigeration to extend the freshness of fruits, vegetables, and meat in off-grid communities; organic fertiliser made from converted biowaste; and micro-lending organisations to help smallholder farmers gain access to finance. A cut in funding means these development programmes could be impacted severely. 

Trump’s “America First” approach emphasises protecting US jobs and industries, sometimes at the expense of foreign trade benefits. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which has benefited West African textiles, cocoa, and agro-processing exporters, could be reassessed if Trump’s team perceives it as non-reciprocal. Reduced AGOA benefits would result in higher tariffs for West African goods, impacting foreign exchange earnings and local industries in countries like Nigeria, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire. Scaling back AGOA would force these countries to seek new markets, which could be challenging given the existing reliance on US buyers for these goods.

Climate and Immigration: Strategic Departures with Local Consequences
Trump’s scepticism about climate change policies may also translate to reduced US involvement in global climate initiatives, which could influence West Africa. Countries in the region, already facing climate-related challenges like desertification, may need to look elsewhere for climate adaptation support. Many West African countries rely on international climate funds to support their adaptation and mitigation efforts, which help vulnerable communities manage climate impacts. Reduced US contributions to global climate finance mechanisms like the Green Climate Fund (GCF) could create a funding gap, forcing West African countries to seek alternative sources of support or shutter these programmes. The agricultural sector in the region, which is highly climate-sensitive, would struggle without adequate funding for climate-resilient farming practices. Water management projects aimed at addressing droughts and improving access to potable water could also face setbacks, exacerbating water scarcity issues in countries like Burkina Faso and Niger.

More crucially, the spotlight will be on Trump’s immigration policies. During Trump’s first term, immigration policies included visa restrictions on nationals of several African countries. These policies, framed around security concerns, limited pathways for many Africans to enter the US for work, study, and family reunification purposes. The new Trump administration could reinforce or expand these restrictions, significantly affecting West Africans’ access to the US. The West African diaspora, particularly in the US, is crucial in sending remittances that support economies back home. Tightened immigration restrictions would reduce remittance flows, impacting household incomes and investments in education and infrastructure across the region, adding another layer of economic stress to already creaking economies.

US-Nigeria Relations: Navigating a New Political Landscape
The biggest concern centres around the political relations between Abuja and Washington. Ahead of Nigeria’s 2015 elections, the Obama administration subtly influenced the political scene, supporting the All Progressives Congress (APC) and contributing to Muhammadu Buhari’s victory over incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan. However, Trump’s stance on Nigeria’s current APC-led administration under President Bola Tinubu may differ. Trump’s administration has shown scepticism toward the APC, given its historical ties to Democratic Party networks. This could mean a more cautious, perhaps even critical, approach toward Nigeria, with the US reconsidering the extent of its cooperation on critical economic and security priorities.

Under Mr Tinubu, Nigeria has aligned with Western interests in security and economic matters within West Africa. However, with Trump’s emphasis on transactional diplomacy and scepticism toward the APC, US-Nigeria relations may shift, with the Trump administration potentially seeking alternative allies aligned with its economic and security principles. Trump’s team may explore partnerships with opposition parties or emerging figures who prioritise conservative fiscal policies, regional security, and protection for Christian communities.

Trump’s base has shown strong support for religious freedom, including the defence of Christian communities worldwide. With Nigeria facing ongoing sectarian violence in parts of its Middle Belt region, Trump’s administration may gravitate toward leaders committed to protecting Christian minorities. This could lead to increased US support for Nigerian states upholding Christian interests, especially in areas affected by extremist violence.

Trump’s administration may also push for Nigeria to implement electoral reforms and human rights protections as prerequisites for continued US support. Under the APC, Nigeria’s governance has faced criticism for cases of treason charges against minors, restrictions on free expression, and arbitrary detentions. Pro-democracy groups in Nigeria might benefit from US backing, which could amplify their calls for accountability and reforms. US support for human rights advocates and electoral watchdogs could strengthen public pressure on Aso Rock to address fundamental freedoms and electoral integrity.

Trump’s administration may favour Nigeria’s opposition if it presents a cohesive stance focused on economic liberalisation, security, and Christian protections. Nigeria’s opposition has often suffered from fragmentation in past elections, with diverse political interests struggling to coalesce around a shared agenda. The extent to which the Trump administration will be willing to support Nigeria’s opposition hinges largely on whether opposition parties can present a unified, coherent front. Such alignment could attract US backing in various forms, from investment incentives to diplomatic support. However, if opposition factions remain fragmented, Trump’s team might avoid deep involvement, instead prioritising economic and security collaborations that do not favour any single political bloc.

In aligning with new political structures, Trump’s administration will likely prioritise groups that endorse a pro-business, market-driven economic model. Trump’s “America First” policy emphasises strengthening trade relationships that support US interests, including mutually beneficial investments and expanding American economic influence. Nigerian political structures advocating for deregulation, private sector-led growth, and foreign investment policies may favour Trump’s administration.

With heightened scrutiny on the APC, Trump’s return could prompt changes in Nigeria’s political dynamics. The Trump administration’s engagement, prioritising accountability and reform, could foster a more balanced and transparent relationship with Nigeria.

Conclusion
Donald Trump’s return to the White House marks a significant shift in US domestic and foreign policy, with global and local implications. For the African continent, particularly West Africa, the impact will likely manifest in reduced engagement, altered trade dynamics, and potential funding cuts for climate and development initiatives. Trump’s “America First” stance could lead to reassessing trade benefits under AGOA, directly affecting export economies in Nigeria, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire. At the same time, immigration restrictions could further strain economic stability by reducing remittance flows.

Nigeria, under President Bola Tinubu, faces a complex recalibration of its relationship with the US. Trump Part 2 will adopt a transactional approach that could influence Nigeria’s political landscape, with the potential for enhanced accountability measures and a cautious stance toward the ruling APC. Furthermore, Trump’s focus on religious freedom and security may influence US support for Nigerian regions facing sectarian violence while aligning more closely with Nigerian leaders who prioritise the protection of Christian communities.

As Trump returns with an “America First” agenda, African countries may need to adapt to a new diplomatic landscape, seeking alternative alliances and strengthening regional initiatives to offset shifting US priorities. This historic comeback underscores the need for African countries to diversify partnerships, increase resilience in key sectors, and navigate potential challenges in the evolving US-Africa relationship.