Africa Watch – New-ish wine, old skin

9th December 2024

Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, 72, of Namibia’s ruling SWAPO party, has been elected the country’s first female president, extending SWAPO’s 34-year rule since independence in 1990. The Electoral Commission announced her victory with 57% of valid votes, surpassing the 50% threshold required. “The Namibian nation has voted for peace and stability,” Nandi-Ndaitwah said after being declared president-elect. Her closest rival, Panduleni Itula of the Independent Patriots for Change (IPC), secured 26% of the votes and plans to challenge the results in court. The IPC said the electoral process was “deeply flawed.” with “glaring and undeniable” malpractices.

The election of Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah as Namibia’s first female president is a landmark event in the country’s political history, marking a critical juncture in its governance dynamics. However, as highlighted in SBM’s 2024 Africa Country Instability Risk Index (ACIRI), the broader context underscores significant undercurrents of political and societal instability that are worth exploring.

Namibia is currently rated stable at 33% in the 2024 edition of SBM’s Africa Risk framework. Nandi-Ndaitwah’s win is unique in many ways, apart from its feat of electing a female president. Namibia’s political landscape is dominated by the South-West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO), which has maintained unbroken rule since independence in 1990. The party’s liberation credentials have historically translated into broad electoral support, often resulting in supermajorities.

However, recent years have seen a decline in this dominance. For instance, in the 2019 elections, SWAPO lost its two-thirds majority in parliament for the first time since 2014, signalling growing discontent among the electorate. The -6 score change in Namibia’s ACIRI rating, despite its overall “stable” designation, reflects these cracks in its political edifice. A dominant-party system often breeds complacency, corruption, and a lack of accountability. This is evident in opposition gains and their increasing boldness in challenging SWAPO’s entrenched dominance. SWAPO’s relatively declining popularity following corruption scandals led analysts to predict a run-off–a prediction she beat by leading with a comfortable majority.

With 65.57% of the vote counted, early results released Tuesday by the election commission showed the governing party candidate, 72-year-old Nandi-Ndaitwah, leading with 54.82%. Also, the anti-ruling party sentiment expected to taint SWAPO’s fortunes did not materialise. Voters vote separately for members of the National Assembly, and with 66.4 percent of the votes tallied, SWAPO led the ballot with 56.38 percent. Independent Patriots for Change was running at 19.23 percent.

Ms Nandi-Ndaitwah’s victory bucked the trend visible in Southern Africa’s elections this year, where anti-incumbent sentiments have either swept a long-lasting ruling power from office (Botswana) or forced it into a coalition for the first time (South Africa), or led to a hotly contested stalemate, leading to instability (Mozambique). If her win is confirmed following the opposition’s planned legal challenge, she will have to deal with the corruption of party members in government. She would also be faced with a sluggish economy.

A few days after the poll, the Bank of Namibia (BoN) revised its 2024 economic growth forecast to 3.5% from the previous estimate of 3.1%. This upward revision is attributed to improved domestic conditions despite global economic headwinds and ongoing drought. That revision is still a shortfall from the 2023 numbers. The country’s economy grew by an estimated 4.2% in 2023, down from 5.3% in 2022 due to weak global demand for diamonds and an 18% contraction in agriculture caused by drought. The AFDB projected that real GDP would decline to 3.3% in 2024 and 2025 owing to anticipated weak global demand for diamonds and contraction in agriculture.

Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah’s ascent to the presidency represents a dual narrative. On one hand, it is a victory for gender representation in a region where female political leadership remains rare. Her presidency could inspire broader participation of women in governance and set a precedent for gender inclusivity in Namibia and the region. On the other hand, her election continues SWAPO’s grip on power, raising questions about whether the party can rejuvenate itself or remain mired in old patronage systems. The court challenge will test Namibia’s judiciary and electoral commission, which are crucial for upholding democratic norms. The broader instability risk also ties into economic factors. Namibia’s reliance on extractive industries, persistent inequality, and youth unemployment could magnify dissatisfaction with SWAPO’s governance.

If these socio-economic challenges remain unaddressed, political discontent could deepen, regardless of SWAPO’s historical dominance. Nandi-Ndaitwah’s presidency offers renewal opportunities, but it will require a departure from the status quo. Key focus areas should include strengthening democratic processes to rebuild trust in elections and institutions, addressing unemployment and inequality to foster inclusive growth, and engaging opposition parties and civil society to mitigate polarisation and promote political pluralism.

While Nandi-Ndaitwah’s victory is a historic milestone, it does not erase the structural challenges facing Namibia’s political system. SWAPO’s prolonged dominance and allegations of electoral malpractice and socio-economic grievances could strain the country’s stability. Her presidency will determine whether Namibia can address these challenges and maintain its “stable” ranking or risk further declines in indices like ACIRI.