Ghana Decides – The road to Jubilee House

Ghana’s 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections are heating up as candidates vie for the nation’s highest office, the Jubilee House. Since Ghana’s return to democratic rule in 1992, the political landscape has been dominated by two main parties: the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC). These two parties have alternated in power, with key moments shaping the country’s political evolution, such as the NPP’s defeat of the NDC in 2000 and the first-ever loss of an incumbent president in 2016.

The 2024 race features 12 candidates, with Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia of the NPP and former President John Mahama of the NDC as the main contenders. A victory for Mahama would make him the first president to reclaim power after losing it, while Bawumia’s potential win would make him Ghana’s first Muslim president. Despite this duopoly, third-party candidates like Alan Kyerematen, who broke from the NPP to form the Alliance for Revolutionary Change, and Nana Kwame Bediako, leader of the New Force Movement, add new dynamics to the race. While these third-party candidates are unlikely to win outright, they could influence the outcome by pushing the election to a runoff.

To win the presidency, a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote. A runoff between the top two candidates is held if no candidate achieves this. Historically, third-party candidates have played pivotal roles in such runoffs. The NPP traditionally wins populous regions with higher voter turnout, while the NDC’s support is stronger in northern regions.

Ghana’s 16 regions present a complex electoral map, with swing regions like Western, Central, and Greater Accra often pivotal in determining the winner. The NPP dominates in regions like Ashanti, Ahafo, and Eastern, while the NDC holds sway in regions such as Volta, Northern, and Upper West. The youth vote is particularly crucial, with over two million young voters, many beneficiaries of the NPP’s Free Senior High School program. Floating voters, historically influential in determining the outcome, are another important bloc, with around 10% of voters undecided or willing to switch party allegiance. The Muslim vote, especially with Bawumia as a candidate, will also play a critical role in shaping the results.

The election’s key issues include economic concerns like youth unemployment, inflation, and the depreciation of the cedi, as well as corruption and infrastructure development. Bawumia has focused on economic reforms, digital transformation, and job creation, while Mahama advocates for inclusive growth and the continuation of the Free Senior High School program. Challenges include media bias, a shortage of ballot papers in NDC strongholds, and controversy over the election date, which falls on a Saturday.

With polls showing a tight race, the 2024 elections are expected to be one of the most competitive in Ghana’s history. The outcome will shape the country’s political future.

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