Scorecard – assessing our 2024 forecast

At the end of every year, SBM makes projections of what we think will occur in Nigeria and the rest of Africa during the coming year. While the prophecy business is not an exact science, our record thus far has been decent.

Economy

The slow pace of reforms and policy adjustments will likely hinder rapid economic growth, resulting in sustained slow GDP growth rates between 3 and 3.2%. The national debt will rise by about 3% of the country’s GDP in 2024. We got this correct.

Nigeria’s inflation rate will remain above 27% throughout the year despite the central bank’s monetary policy efforts. We got this correct.

Oil prices will hover around 90$/per barrel. Nigeria’s oil revenue will increase. However, production will continue to fall short of OPEC’s quota due to crude oil theft and other infrastructural problems. We got this partially correct.

The CBN will not be able to accomplish its goal of achieving 95% financial inclusion by the year 2024. We got this correct.

As the CBN proceeds with its recapitalisation of banks, the commercial bank count will fall below 20, down from the current count of 24. We got this wrong.

The CBN will also issue new licensing frameworks for payment platforms and fintechs, which may include listing requirements. We got this correct.

We expect the monetary policy rate to remain around 18.5% while the yield on 10-year bonds should stay above 16%. We got this wrong.

There will be a more explicit reintroduction of fuel subsidies. We got this correct.

Moderate reforms in the country’s financial market will result in favourable government policies, increasing investor confidence. We got this correct.

Consumer spending will continue to be pressured in 2024, decreasing non-essential consumer spending. We got this correct.

There will be a rise in diaspora remittances due to more Nigerians migrating abroad for work. We got this correct.

The value of the Naira will stabilise around ₦800/$1 in the official market. However, more fluctuation is expected in the parallel market depending on the supply available in the official market. We got this wrong.

More foreign firms with manufacturing plants in Nigeria will close their shops and transit to importation and trading due to pressure occasioned by forex unavailability. We got this correct.

The unemployment rate will rise as companies struggle to stay afloat in a challenging economic environment. We got this correct.

Organised civil unrest will not ensue in opposition to the government, given the Nigerian Labour Congress’s diminished capacity to galvanise the populace against governmental excesses. We got this correct.

Politics

The APC will reinforce its grip by leveraging its current position and employing policies to strengthen its power. We got this correct.

The APC’s use of courts to seize control of lost states will further erode public trust in the electoral process and may trigger protests as people lose further hope in the justice system. We got this wrong.

The PDP will gradually lose its hold as the foremost opposition party in the country. However, the Labour Party will not be able to capitalise on that in 2024. We got this correct.

A new political group will emerge as the main opposition to the Tinubu Administration. It will be clustered around the northern elements that are out of favour in the APC. We got this wrong.

We should witness a more vocal opposition within the APC caucus in the National Assembly against the actions of the leadership of the National Assembly. We got this correct.

Despite the problems the APC faces in Ondo State, it will win the elections there. We got this correct.

We will see one of the most keenly contested gubernatorial elections in Edo. However, the PDP should retain the state using the power of incumbency. We got this wrong.

President Bola Tinubu’s popularity will continue to plummet as economic conditions on the streets fail to improve, leading to disorganised protests nationwide. We got this correct.

A lack of perceived legitimacy and widespread support for the Tinubu government will foster the rise and increased popularity of regional and ethnic leaders and blocs as Nigerians become more desperate for solutions and mouthpieces. Politicians looking to position for future elections will fuel or align with these waves to create a groundswell of local support that can be built on. We got this correct.

Security

Nigeria faces a growing risk of riots and unrest in 2024, fueled by political instability, economic woes and ongoing conflicts. We got this correct.

The country’s widespread poverty, unemployment and inflation have already led to social tensions, which could intensify in 2024, starting in Northern Nigeria. We got this correct.

There will be a rise in insecurity in Abuja. Turf wars between various transport unions will contribute to this, and resentment over the conduct of the FCT Minister Nyesom Wike could trigger religious tensions in the capital. We got this partially correct.

Banditry in the Northwest will decrease in headline incidents as more communities surrender to criminal groups and effectively pay them taxes. We got this correct.

Ansaru will return to the Northwest and stage attacks to show intent. We got this partially correct.

In the Northeast, fighting between the two factions of Boko Haram will move further away from the cities but will intensify in rural areas. We got this correct.

The conflict between herders and farmers in the Middle Belt will continue to affect food security in the country. We got this correct.

Despite the population’s tiredness with the IPOB’s sit-at-home order and its effect on their pockets, separatist agitation in Southeast Nigeria will see a boost in 2024 as more ethnic Igbos feel marginalised and targeted by Abuja. We got this wrong.

Inland waterways piracy will see a boost in pirate activities. This will be because most anti-piracy structures set up by governments in the South-South have failed. We got this wrong.

Rest of Africa

John Dramani Mahama, candidate of Ghana’s largest opposition party – the National Democratic Congress (NDC), will win the December 2024 presidential election. The economic woes faced by Ghanaians over the last two years will count against the candidate of the ruling party – the New Patriotic Party (NPP) – Mahamudu Bawumia. We got this correct.

As a third force, Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen’s Movement for Change cannot gather the required momentum to win the election. We got this correct.

There will also be an increased turnout in the election. We got this wrong.

ECOWAS will reach an accommodation with the Nigerien regime that will see either a reinstatement of its membership or a formal reinstatement of diplomatic relations between Niamey and the major West African states. We got this wrong.

Cameroon will likely see a leader change in 2024, ending Biya’s 40-year reign. We got this wrong.

There will be increased social unrest, especially in North Africa, as a result of food shortages occasioned by the ongoing war in Ukraine and the heightened geopolitical tensions triggered by the Israel-Hamas war. We got this correct.

A coup in Burkina Faso is likely due to increased conflict. We got this correct. 

We expect the war in Sudan to come to an uncomfortable ceasefire due to pressure from the Middle East on both sides. We got this wrong.

For the first time since 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa will win less than half of the vote in the general election. We got this correct.

This will be triggered by a lower turnout than recorded in the 2019 elections. We got this correct.

With more brazen backing from Rwanda, the DRC’s M23 rebels will seize more towns in Eastern Congo and consolidate their gains. We got this correct.

The Ethiopian state will continue to exist on shaky ground. The Tanzania Talks between the Oromo Liberation Army and Abiy Ahmed’s government will not lead to any political settlement, and the Amhara crisis will remain in its current state. We got this correct.

The Malian regime will not honour its election deadline to return to democracy; taking the fight to the Tuaregs will buy enough time to postpone the election. We got this correct.

Of the 46 forecasts we made, we got 31 correct, three partially correct, and 12 wrong for a pass rate of 67%, an increase from our 2023 report.