Analysis

Nigeria has revised its 2024 budget upwards by ₦1.5 trillion to ₦27.5 trillion ($32.76 billion), Budget Minister Atiku Bagudu said, after increasing the oil price benchmark to $77.96 and lowering the naira exchange rate assumption to ₦750 per dollar. Also, the government is seeking to borrow $8.6 billion and €100 million. President Tinubu said the Buhari administration approved the 2022-2024 external borrowing rolling plan on 15 May 2023. Meanwhile, the Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project has urged the World Bank to halt loans to Nigeria’s 36 states, citing allegations of mismanagement of public funds. While we think that the oil assumption revisions are sound and grounded in the current realities of global and domestic outlook, oil production, which is currently at 1.43 million barrels per day and up from 1.23 million barrels per day in the previous month, is still behind the 1.78 million barrels per day target set in the 2024 budget submission. The last time Nigeria’s monthly production averaged 1.7 million per day was in May 2020. However, if the current trajectory continues, the target will be achievable, which can only mean positives for Nigeria's precarious fiscal position. Meanwhile, it is still largely dependent on oil and gas ...

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